To avoid the generalities inherent in regional projections, projections focussing on an individual country are necessary. 2011; Pachauri et al. Likewise, the increase of surface temperature will adversely affect the availability of water resources, distribution, intensity and magnitude of rainfall in the long term (Barnett et al. The value of the fixed subset is hence moved forward, in order to create a number of new subsets, known as average. The shift takes place when the trade winds from the north retreat giving the space forequatorial westerlies. Let X1, X2, X3. The indicators included in this study are based on many different information sources. Water Resources Potentials and Development in Ethiopia, CHAPTER FIVE THE CLIMATE OF ETHIOPIA AND THE HORN, 5.2. It is a rainfall region in the southwestern partof the country. Therefore, given the prolonged climatic variability of the Beressa watershed, the following coping and adaptation mechanisms are suggested. The problem is high in developing countries, particularly sub-Saharan countries in which the majority of the population live on rainfed agriculture. Trends are biased positive in the interior western US, so that strong RH decreases are changed to weak decreases, and weak decreases are changed to increases. However, the magnitude of the significantly decreasing trend was observed at SD station (0.90 mm/year and 16.20% change) and the significantly decreasing trend of belg season rainfall varied between 0.12 mm/year and 10.00% at GIN station to a significantly increasing trend of 0.40 mm/year and 30.00% at DB station. s u m m a r y Due to global warming the climate of central Chile is expected to experience dramatic changes in the 21st century including declining precipitation, earlier streamflow peaks, and a greater proportion of precipitation falling as rain. Therefore, long-term analysis of climatic trends has been used to characterize the situations (Singh et al. kiremit season (JuneSeptember), belg season (MarchMay), bega season (OctoberFebruary) and annually for all subdivisions, while the long-term trend of temperature was assessed for annual average, annual minimum and maximum temperature. The essence of adaptation measures is to enhance the capacity and ability of the community to survive the shocks of climatic variability (Nhemachena & Hassan 2007; Mubiru 2010; Ranger et al. Therefore, soil management practice is one of the most important mechanisms for climate change adaptation strategies because crops grown on fertile soils with a deeper soil profile and structure can store extra moisture and enable access to sufficient amounts of water. After visual identification of the outliers, each of the values was obtained using a normal ratio technique. Barley, bean and chickpea show significant correlation with maximum temperature. Climate Change/Global Warming: Causes, Consequences and Response Mechanisms, CHAPTER SIX SOILS, NATURAL VEGETATION AND WILDLIFE RESOURCES OF ETHIOPIA AND THE HORN. Spatiotemporal Distribution of TemperatureAltitude is an important element in determining temperature of Ethiopia and the Horn. Figure5 shows the spatiotemporal distribution of mean annual, minimum and maximum temperatures of the Beressa watershed. Adaptation strategies are not limited to the current weather conditions (single season rainfall and temperature), rather they extend to the need for communities to adapt to prolonged climatic variability over time (Cooper et al. 3. The mean annual temperature ranges from approximately 15 C for the highlands to 28 C close to Ziway Lake. For the kiremit (summer season), the main rainfall source is the northward oscillation of ITCZ and the development of high-pressure systems along the southern Atlantic as well as South Indian Oceans. Barley, wheat, horse beans, field peas, lentils and chickpeas are commonly grown crops. In autumn the ITCZ shiftstowards the equator weakening the equatorial westerlies. 2012). For more than 70% of the world's population, the primary source of their livelihood has originated from weather sensitive agriculture (Suarez et al. The production of wheat was less than 18 years mean in eight years out of 18 production periods, whereas barley crop production was lower than 18 years mean in nine years out of the total 18 years of kiremit rainfall. As the shift takesplace, equatorial westerlies from the south and southwest invade most parts of Ethiopia bringingmoist winds.However, these winds decrease the length of rainy seasons and magnitudes on the line of theshift. The minimum temperatures increased at a higher rate than the maximum temperatures during winter, summer, autumn and also at the annual timescale. This Therefore, the consecutive occurrence of frequent tropical depression over the South West Indian Ocean (SWIO) overlapped with the recurrent drought of Ethiopia (1972 and 1984). The results revealed that the magnitude of significantly increasing trend and variability was observed in mean annual rainfall for DB station (at 0.28 mm/year and 1.07%). The MK test, Sen's slope and precipitation concentration index (PCI) were applied. Sorry, preview is currently unavailable. Therefore, the interannual rainfall distribution was very erratic. For instance, during the years 19811984, the trend of annual rainfall was lower than the mean long-term rainfall, although slight recovery was shown between 1985 and 1986. Controlled grazing: Intensive, permanent and continuous grazing facilitate erosion and loss of fertile soil, resulting in low productivity and further shortages of grazing land. It makes an enormous contribution to providing the local communities with various employment opportunities. Brigadier Libanda, Babra N A M W I I N G A Nkolola, The Impact of El Nio on Biodiversity, Agriculture and Food Security, Journal of Geoscience and Environment Protection, Hydrology and Earth System Sciences Discussions, Assessing climate change projections in the Volta Basin using the CORDEX-Africa climate simulations and statistical bias-correction, Kofi Antwi Yeboah, Komlavi Akpoti, Eric Mortey, Samuel Akowuah Okyereh, Changing temperature and precipitation extremes in the Hindu Kush-Himalayan region: an analysis of CMIP3 and CMIP5 simulations and projections, Projected trends in mean, maximum, and minimum surface temperature in China from simulations, Climate change impacts on an alpine watershed in Chile: Do new model projections change the story, Future humidity trends over the western United States in the CMIP5 global climate models and variable infiltration capacity hydrological modeling system, Long-term ozone changes and associated climate impacts in CMIP5 simulations, Simulation of historical and projected climate change in arid and semiarid areas by CMIP5 models. However, local farmers evaluate climatic variability in relation to their crop productivity. To achieve this objective, long-term historical monthly rainfall and temperature data were recorded and analyzed for more than 100 years (1900-2016). In Ethiopia and elsewhere in the Horn,temperature shows seasonal variations. Mainly, the regional topography and seasonal evolution of the large-scale circulation determined the geographical distribution of rainfall in Ethiopia (Diro et al., 2011).Global and regional change of the weather systems and the topographic variation together with the seasonal cycles are reason or major cause for the spatial variability of . The region experiences most of its rain during summer (kiremt), while some placesalso receive spring (Belg) rain. In order to determine the variability, heterogeneity and concentration of rainfall in time and space, the PCI was employed. Therefore, it is pertinent for decision-makers to develop suitable adaptation and mitigating measures to combat climate change in the Basin. Some of the studies conducted are based on areal averages of spatial climatic variability (Seleshi & Demaree 1995; Osman & Sauerborn 2001). The moving average is possibly acquired by considering the initial subset average. Therefore, the projected rainfall and temperature have been corrected for biases by using empirical Quantile Mapping. The reduction in precipitation is projected to be steepest over Northwestern Province and lessens southwards. Improving awareness about climatic variability and its adverse implications for their environment enables farmers to modify their resources and management practices and make efficient use of available water for better crop production. The period from March to May, as often happens in Ethiopia, is the warmest of the year, albeit by a few degrees. Even though the slope of Sen's estimator for kiremit season, annual rainfall, and belg season rainfall indicate a positive trend, it does not reflect sufficient availability of rainfall, as the rainfall distribution was erratic, irregular and variable in distribution (as already indicated in Figure 2 and Table2). 2005). In administrative terms, it is located in Basona Worena District, in the North Showa zone of Amhara regional state (Figure1), situated 180 km northeast of the capital city, Addis Ababa. Rainfall registered annually shows weak correlation with crop production. The temporal variabilities of rainfall are characterized by;i. Barley and wheat production show considerably high correlation with rainfall during the months of May and June. Data and Methods 3.1. Water Resources: Rivers, Lakes and Sub-Surface Water, 4.4. Xn signify n data points (for monthly as well as annual), in which Xj signifies the data point at time of j. 2015). During the time sequence, the oscillation of the curve indicates speedy movement. 2013; Pachauri et al. Journal of Water and Climate Change 1 December 2019; 10 (4): 799817. The possible reason may be monthly, sub-monthly time scale, temporal and spatial distribution of rainfall and temperature, which are determinant factors of production. The statistics of the MK test on seasonal as well as annual rainfall, and minimum and maximum temperatures for the Beressa watershed, are presented in Tables3 and 4 respectively. 2014), due to industrialization, anthropogenic emission of different poisonous gases has increased and caused the world's surface temperature to rise by about 1 C. Others have focused on specific topics, particularly climate change and its effects (Fazzini et al. In kiremit season, rain is essential but it extends to the bega season during the harvesting stage. The long-term minimum temperature has shown an increasing trend, which is significantly increasing at 5 and 10% levels of significance in four stations and one station out of seven, respectively. As shown in Figure2, during the period 19802014 the seasonal rainfall trend of the Beressa watershed for the kiremit season shows less rainfall variability throughout the study periods. Air temperature estimation using remote sensing satellite provides a new way of conducting studies in the field of climate change study. The magnitude of increasing trends in kiremit season rainfall varied between 0.33 mm/year and a percentage change of 6.13% (DBS station) to 1.62 mm/year and 31.79% (DB). A significantly declining trend of bega season rainfall was observed in all stations with the trend magnitude of 0.61 mm/year and 7.50% in GIN station to 0.21 mm/year and 56.40% in DBS station. The minimum and maximum temperature have increased by 0.8 and 1.1 C/year, respectively.. Therefore, depending on the historical trend of rainfall variability and prolonged temperature increase, appropriate coping and adaptation strategies need to be encouraged. 2011; Funk et al. 2013). Soil management: Soil erosion and degradation reduces crop productivity for traditional farming practices (particularly for mountainous area like the Beressa watershed), as erosion and degradation occurs at a higher rate than fertile soil formation. 2013). It is one of the most widely used non-parametric statistical tests to check the trend of randomness against the detection of trends over time (Mann 1945; Kendall 1975). Observed Data The Hindu Kush-Himalayan (HKH) region epitomizes a geographic region where cryospheric processes coupled with hydrological regimes are under threat owing to a warming climate and shifts in climate extremes. Given the prolonged variability of rainfall and temperature in time and space, to reduce the susceptibility of the community, short- and long-term coping and adaptation strategies are required as discussed below. The present study aimed to undertake spatiotemporal analysis of seasonal and annual rainfall and temperature and its implications. 5.3.1. 2013; Irannezhad et al. temperature is high during the daytime in some places, and is considerably reduced at nightresulting maximum difference in the daily range.But in the case of monthly averages, variation is minimal and the annual range of temperature issmall. Based on PCI results, rainfall during the summer and spring seasons is moderately distributed as compared to annual and winter season rainfall. The details of these stations have already been presented in Table2. 2016). 2015). In the tropics, the daily range of temperature is higher and theannual range is small, whereas the reverse is true in the temperate latitudes. 1982; Burn & Elnur 2002; Yue et al. Because of the rainfall-dependent farming practice, farmers are always worried about the duration and intensity of rainfall. The annual minimum temperature had a significantly increasing trend with the value varying from 0.005 C/year and 1.90% in GIN station to 0.12 C/year and 52.40% in the DBS station. The result could downplay the effects of decreasing RH on plants and wildfire. It is shown that the MT-CLIM meteorological algorithms used by the Variable Infiltration Capacity (VIC) hydrological model, when driven by daily T min , T max , and precipitation (a configuration used in numerous published studies), do not preserve the original global model's humidity trends. The Climate Hazards Group InfraRed Precipitation with Station data (CHIRPS) products were used to analyze drought patterns and severity in Ethiopia's 14 homogenous rainfall zones using CHIRPS satellite rainfall data. 2007; Fu et al. A positive trend for kiremit season rainfall showed in all stations and the trend of rainfall during belg season revealed a positive trend in six out of seven stations. The Impacts of Relief on Biophysical and Socioeconomic Conditions, CHAPTER FOUR DRAINAGE SYSTEMS AND WATER RESOURCE OF ETHIOPIA AND THE HORN, 4.3. With respect to the statistically significant level, only barley and wheat crops are significantly related to belg and kiremit rainfall. Spatiotemporal distribution and the characteristics of the air temperature of a river source region of the Qinghai-Tibet Plateau Environ Monit Assess. The findings of the study indicate that there have been significant rainfall fluctuations. The production of beans was below 18-year mean in nine years out of 18 years production periods, as indicated in Table5, which accounts for 50% of the total bean production; while in respect of kiremit rainfall pea, chickpea, and lentil production (50, 50 and 55.5% respectively) were below the 18-year mean. contribution of working group I to the third assessment report of the intergovernmental panel on climate change, Techniques of trend analysis for monthly water quality data, Global warming and African climate change: a reassessment, Long-term variations and trends in precipitation in Finland, Theory and practice in assessing vulnerability to climate change and facilitating adaptation, The value of large-scale climate variables in climate change assessment: the case of Botswana's rainfall, Precipitation climatology over India: validation with observations and reanalysis datasets and spatial trends, Climate change impacts on groundwater and dependent ecosystems, Downscaled climate change projections with uncertainty assessment over India using a high resolution multi-model approach, Precipitation variability in Northeast China from 1961 to 2008, Adapting cropping systems to climate change in Nepal: a cross-regional study of farmers perception and practices, The UNDP Climate Change Country Profiles: improving the accessibility of observed and projected climate information for studies of climate change in developing countries, Trends in daily observed temperature and precipitation extremes over three Ethiopian eco-environments, http://agris.fao.org/agris-search/search.do?recordID=ET2009000029, Analyses of land use and land cover change dynamics using GIS and remote sensing during 1984 and 2015 in the Beressa Watershed Northern Central Highland of Ethiopia, Contrasting climate variability and meteorological drought with perceived drought and climate change in northern Ethiopia, Using the seasonal and temporal precipitation concentration index for characterizing the monthly rainfall distribution in Spain, Spatial and temporal analysis of rainfall and temperature trend of India, Spatio-temporal trend analysis of precipitation data over Rwanda, Monthly precipitation distribution: a comparative index, Trend analysis in Turkish precipitation data, Spatial and temporal trends of mean and extreme rainfall and temperature for the 33 urban centers of the arid and semi-arid state of Rajasthan, India, Trend analysis of climatic variables in an arid and semi-arid region of the Ajmer District, Rajasthan, India, Climate variability and educational attainment: evidence from rural Ethiopia, An assessment of the potential impact of climate change on flood risk in Mumbai, Assessment of statistical characteristics of point rainfall in the Onkaparinga catchment in South Australia, Assessment of trends in point rainfall using Continuous Wavelet Transforms, Rainfall variability in the Ethiopian and Eritrean highlands and its links with the Southern Oscillation Index, Recent changes in rainfall and rainy days in Ethiopia, Building climate resilience in the Blue Nile/Abay Highlands: a framework for action, Changes in rainfall and relative humidity in river basins in northwest and central India, An investigation into observational characteristics of rainfall and temperature in Central Northeast India a historical perspective 18892008, Long-term historic changes in climatic variables of Betwa Basin, India, Modeling runoffsediment response to land use/land cover changes using integrated GIS and SWAT model in the Beressa watershed, Household level tree planting and its implication for environmental conservation in the Beressa Watershed of Ethiopia, Spatiotemporal analysis of precipitation trends under climate change in the upper reach of Mekong River basin, Long-term trend analysis for major climate variables in the Yellow River basin, Spatial analysis of monthly and annual precipitation trends in Turkey, Power of the MannKendall and Spearman's rho tests for detecting monotonic trends in hydrological series, Canadian streamflow trend detection: impacts of serial and cross-correlation, Analysis of precipitation characteristics during 19572012 in the semi-arid Loess Plateau, China, Uniform distribution of precipitation (lLow concentration), Moderate distribution of precipitation (moderate concentration), Strong irregularity of precipitation distribution, Republic Export Building,Units 1.04 & 1.05.
discuss spatiotemporal distribution of temperature and rainfall in ethiopia